- Iran Economic Outlook:
- Iran Economic Growth:
- Main exports:
- Iranian business signals cautious optimism over nuclear talk:
- Iran Economy Data:
Iran is the 18th largest country of the world. … Iran is one of the world’s major countries in oil export and it is rich in natural resources. It has land borders with Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan in the north, Afghanistan and Pakistan on the east, and Iraq and Turkey in the west.
Iran Economic Outlook
A recent GDP release confirmed that growth slowed in the third quarter of last year (SH 2021 Q2), as fixed investment contracted sharply. That being said, both private and government consumption expanded at faster rates in the quarter. On the production side, both the non-oil and oil sectors grew at noticeably softer rates in Q3. Turning to Q4, economic growth likely lost further steam, as oil output growth lost momentum in the quarter, predominately due to a fading base effect as production continued to rise on a sequential basis. Moreover, tighter Covid-19 restrictions in Q4 should have hampered the non-oil sector. In politics, the U.S. recently decided to restore waivers to its sanctions, which would allow foreign companies to cooperate on Iranian nuclear installations. That being said, the move does not reflect a major breakthrough in returning to the 2015 nuclear deal.
Iran Economic Growth
GDP growth should accelerate in SH 2021 (March 2021–March 2022), due to higher oil output and a healthy rebound in exports. In SH 2022, growth should moderate slightly as export growth eases, but domestic demand should remain upbeat. Headwinds persist with much depending on the course of the pandemic and the path that U.S.-Iran relations take under the Biden administration. Panelists see the economy growing 3.0% in SH 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast, and 3.2% in SH 2023.
Iran Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||4,931||5,274||5,635||–||–|
|GDP (USD bn)||392||424||459||–||–|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||-1.3||13.4||3.8||–||–|
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||–||–||–||–||–|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-1.6||-1.9||-1.8||–||–|
|Public Debt (% of GDp)||38.4||47.5||39.5||31.8||–|
|Money (annual variation in %)||30.0||23.2||22.1||23.1||–|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||8.4||7.9||7.3||46.6||22.2|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||11.1||6.9||8.2||26.9||34.8|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||30,162||32,422||37,743||42,000||42,000|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||29,123||30,994||33,384||40,895||42,000|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||0.3||3.9||3.4||–||–|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||1.2||16.4||15.8||26.7||–|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||5.4||20.8||22.6||32.6||–|
|Exports (USD billion)||63.0||84.0||98.1||93.4||–|
|Imports (USD billion)||57.6||63.1||75.5||60.8||–|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-29.2||33.3||16.9||-4.8||–|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-18.7||9.5||19.7||-19.6||–|
|International Reserves (USD)||116||104||106||108||105|
Iran is a middle-income country with a nominal 2018 GDP of about USD450 billion (IMF). It has an industrialised and relatively diversified economy. While oil, gas and petrochemicals are preponderant, there are notable manufacturing, mining, metals, agriculture, power and water sectors.
Oil and natural gas are Iran’s most important exports, accounting for 82 percent of the country’s export revenues. Other exports include chemicals, plastics, fruits, ceramic products and metals. Iran’s main exports partners are: China (21 percent of total exports), Japan (9.2 percent) and Turkey .
Iran’s oil and gas industry is the most active industry of the country. Iran has the fourth largest reserves of oil and second largest reserves of gas in the world.
Iranian business signals cautious optimism over nuclear talk
At a trade exhibition in Tehran, businessman Behnam Ronagh’s conversation flipped between the difficulty of operating under the world’s toughest sanctions regime and his hopes that relief could be around the corner. Nearly four years after former US president Donald Trump abandoned the nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions, Ronagh is betting that indirect talks between Iran and the US to revive the 2015 accord can succeed and, in turn, revive the fortunes of the Islamic republic’s corporate sector, including the PVC film manufacturer he works for.